Wednesday, September 08, 2010

House Polling Update

Three more Republican House polls were reported yesterday.

CT-5: An internal poll for Sam Caligiuri conducted by Adam Geller of National Research found Republican Caligiuri trailing Congressman Chris Murphy by a slim 40-39 margin.  The poll which was conducted on August 30-31, also found that only 36% believe Chris Murphy has performed his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election, while 45% think it’s time for a new person.  Also, the Republicans lead the generic ballot 41-38 in this district.  This clearly indicates that wants Caligiuri garners more name recognition he will be in a solid position to win.
FL-24:  Sandy Adams leads Suzanne Kosmas 49-37 according to a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on Sept 1-2.  The poll also showed that only 38% of the district approved of Obama and 34% approved of Obamacare, while 63% oppose it.
WV-1:  Democrat Mike Oliverio is leading Republican David McKinley 41-36, according to a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.  However, the poll finds that McKinley leads Oliverio 53-40 among voters who are familiar with the views of both candidates. 

This is a pretty amazing dichotomy because WV-1 is West Virginia's most conservative district, as it is rated R+9, while CT-5 is rated D+2.  Yet, the Republican is polling better in CT-5.  This clearly has a lot to do with the fact that Oliverio is campaigning against Pelosi and is having some degree of success in lying about his true ideology.  As we pointed out before, Republicans need to remind voters in "blue dog districts" that any and every Democrat will vote for Pelosi to be Speaker of the Mosque.  This is yet another example of a district in which the more successful the Democrat is at assailing Pelosi, the more likely it will be that she will remain Speaker.  FL-24 is rated R+4 and has long been considered one of the most likely seats to flip because Kosmas is not even pretending to be a blue dog.

The full list of House polls can be found here.

Update:  If some of the polling news doesn't seem to be reflective of a massive red wave, this report certainly does.  According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, Republicans are garnering the most support in the primaries relative to the Democrats since 1930!

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