Mainstream Americans Oppose Citizenship for Children of Illegals

For years, conservatives have been impugned for opposing so-called Birthright Citizenship, the practice of granting automatic citizenship to children born to illegal alien parents.  Most of us with commonsense intuition just could not fathom how someone could run across the border, overstay their visa, or exploit "birth tourism" - and proceed to reap the benefits of citizenship for their children. 

We have always asserted that just a convoluted interpretation of the 14th amendment only serves to attenuate the value of American citizenship.  After all, the 14th amendment was meant to guarantee citizenship for blacks who lived in this country for centuries; not for those who break our laws as their first act on American soil.

Now, the latest Rasmussen poll confirms that this is indeed mainstream thought in America:

Voters oppose more strongly than ever granting automatic U.S. citizenship to a child born to an illegal immigrant in this country.
Now, nearly two-out-of-three Likely U.S. Voters (65%) say if a woman enters the United States as an illegal alien and gives birth to a child here, that child should not automatically become a U.S. citizen. 

Only those who live in the New York-Washington ivory tower could possibly view American citizenship any other way.  Unfortunately, they control the media, and as such, will ensure that the immigration polling data is not reported, even though these are the people who live and die by polls.

Obama Tanks in PA, Reelection Looking Bleak

Ask any consumer of political conventional wisdom about 2012 and they will spew puerile platitudes about Republicans lacking a candidate to defeat Obama.  While the Republicans field, as currently constituted, is indeed sub-par, Obama simply cannot win reelection with his current approval numbers.

Yesterday, Quinnipiac University published a poll showing Obama with his lowest approval rating ever in Pennsylvania.  This, from their report:

President Barack Obama's job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 42 - 53 percent, an all-time low and a major drop from his 51 - 44 percent approval February 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 42 percent he does not deserve a second term, his worst showing on that measure also. In a mythical matchup, he gets 40 percent to an unnamed Republican challenger's 41 percent in the 2012 presidential race. 

Also, among Independents, his approval rating is a lopsided 37-57.

Keep in mind that Republicans don't need PA to win the election.  The more critical states are Ohio and Florida, where Obama's approval is even more dismal.  Granted that we are in the incipient stages of the campaign, however, based upon the trajectory of the economy, job market, and inflation, it appears that Obama is the one who is the underdog.  Don't be discouraged by the propagators of superficial inside-the-beltway conventional wisdom.

Gallup: Obama Under 50% among 'Adults' in 38 States

Americans Begin to Foreclose on their Sub-Prime Investment in Obama.  Only Republicans can Bail him out.

Gallup has collected the data from their daily tracking polls throughout 2010 and contrasted the results to the same information from 2009.  Not surprisingly, their findings show that Obama has suffered a decline in every state since 2009.  His unpopularity is now ubiquitous.  Overall, Obama's national approval rating has dropped 11% from 58% to 47%.  Furthermore, the polling data collected from nearly 180,000 interviews shows that Obama is viewed favorably by less than 50% of respondents in 38 states.  He is above 50% approval in just 12 states, and is viewed unfavorably by the majority of respondents in 16 states.

Here are some more highlights from the surveys:

• Obama enjoys his highest level of approval in Hawaii (65.9%) and lowest level of approval in Wyoming (27.6%).
• The President's approval in his home state of Illinois is at an underwhelming 53.4%.
• Obama's steepest decline from 2009 was in Vermont (shocking) and Arizona (not shocking at all).
• Obama is under 50% in states that are worth 363 electoral votes, while over 50% in states that are worth just 175 electoral votes.
•  There are a whopping 13 Democrat Senate seats up for reelection in 2012 that are in states where Obama is under water.  Only one Republican, Scott Brown, represents a state where Obama is above 50%.  Hmmm, 47+13=?

But, here is the kicker.  The polling sample represents interviews with adults living in the U.S.

Florida Exit Poll: Rubio and Scott won the Hispanic Vote

We are lectured ad nauseum by the open borders Republicans about the electoral devastation that is looming if we fail to enact an amnesty program.  They assert that our strong support for borders and immigration enforcement will drive away all Hispanic voters.  Well, the Miami Herald observes that not only didn't we get swamped by Hispanics; we actually won their vote outright in Florida.  Both Marco Rubio and Rick Scott campaigned on their support for Arizona SB 1070.  In fact, Rick Scott won his stunning upset over Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum exclusively due to his promise of implementing a similar law in Florida.  We were told that Scott would be viewed like David Duke by most Hispanic voters.  To those who understand the importance of immigration enforcement, the election results are not surprising.  Here is the exit polling data from Florida, as reported in the Miami Herald:

Republican Marco Rubio, who is Cuban-American, got 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in the U.S. Senate race, compared to no-party Charlie Crist with 23 percent and Democrat Kendrick Meek with 21 percent. Republican Rick Scott got 50 percent of the Hispanic vote in the governor's race, while Democrat Alex Sink got 48 percent.

Things looking Good in Washington

The news that Dinno Rossi is up 48%-47% in latest Rasmussen poll provides us with some hope of taking back the Senate.  Incidentally, the news might be even better than the poll numbers would suggest.  First, the latest approval numbers show Rossi with a +5 approval rating and Murray with a -2 rating.  This is one of the best approval ratings out of the Republican candidates who have been behind their opponents for most of the election.

There is also another very important factor to consider.  Rasmussen's party ID breakdown of 39 D 29R and 32 I is identical to the turnout of the 2006 election.  That was the worst election for us since Watergate, while  2010 might be the best since 1894.  Nobody knows the exact turnout model for this election, but if it is anything close to what Gallup is predicting, we will win all of the Senate races in which the Republican is even or even slightly behind in the polls on election day.

CA-Sen: Another Day, Another Bogus Poll from PPP

It's amazing how the media reports polling from PPP without mentioning that it is a Democrat polling firm.  We have previously pointed out how they over sample Democrats.  Well, they were at it again this week in California where they came out with a poll that had Boxer over Fiorina 52-43, and Brown over Whitman 53-42.  The problem is that their sample was more unfavorable to Republicans than the 2006 turnout.  2006 was the worst year for the GOP since Watergate and there were no significant Republican candidates on the ballot to turn out the Republican base.  Yet, we are to believe that not only will turnout be at least as good as 2004, it will be worse than 2006.

The 2006 exit poll data from California showed the following partisan turnout:  41% D, 35% R, 25% I.  The PPP poll shows a partisan breakdown of 47% D, 34% R, 19% I.  Also, in 2006, women constituted 51% of the electorate, while they represent 53% in the PPP survey.  Does anyone really believe that turnout models will be worse than in 2006?

Also, the latest Suffolk University poll is even worse.  They also have Boxer leading 52-43, but their survey sample includes 45% D, 31% R, and 25% I.  It is important to discount any Suffolk poll for the rest of the election season because of their ridiculously callous way of screening for likely voters.  Sean Trende, at RCP has a good write-up on this point.

More Liberal Polls?

Normally, when one wishes to alter reality, they do so in a way that won't obviously expose their charade.  However, when it comes to left wing media outlets conducting polls, they are so committed to electing Democrats that they don't care how ridiculously they are perceived.  There were two great examples over the weekend.

Maryland Gubernatorial Race

The Baltimore Sun published a poll that was posted on their front page showing Martin O'Malley leading Bob Ehrlich by 14 points!  Folks, you can't make this stuff up.  The Baltimore Sun has had a visceral hatred for Ehrlich for eight years and has done everything in their power to sabotage his campaign.  Now, they come out with a totally fabricated poll so they can provide O'Malley with some false momentum and dry up Ehrlich's fundraising base.  Gonzales Research, the only respected independent polling outfit in Maryland, had O'Malley leading by 5 during that same period.  The Sun provides no information about their sample other than this:

Updating That List of Sleeper Races

Last Week, we compiled a list of potential sleeper races while expressing the need to swing for the fences so we don't leave any seat behind.  Based upon some news report this week, I would ad these few districts.  Anyone who lives in these districts may want to send some $$$ to these donkey tormentors.

MD-2: Dutch Ruppersberger (D+7)- Donate to Marcelo Cardarelli here
MD-5: Steny Hoyer (D+7)- Donate to Charles Lollar here
MI-5: Dale Kildee (D+7)- Donate to John Kupiec here
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich (D+8)- Donate to Peter Corrigan here

Here is the original list of sleeper races:

AZ-7: D+6 Raul Grijalva is being challenged by Ruth McClung
CA-51 D+8 Bob Filner is being challenged by Nick Popaditch
CT-2:  D+6 Joe Courtney is being challenged by Janet Peckinpaugh
MA-4: D+14 Barney Frank is being challenged by Sean Bielat
MA-5: D+8 Niki Tsongas is being challenged by Jon Golnik
MA-6 D+7 John Tierney is being challenged by Bill Hudak
ME-1 D+8 Chellie Pingree is being challeneged by Dean Scontras
ME-2 D+3 Michael Michaud is being challenged by Jason Levesque
MN-7 R+5 Colin Peterson is being challenged by Lee Byberg
MN-8: D+3 Jim Oberstar is being challenged by Chip Cravaack
MO-3 D+7 Russ Carnahan is being challenged by Ed Martin
NC-4 D+8 David Price is being challenged by BJ Lawson
NC-13 D+5 Brad Miller is being challenged by Bill Randall
NJ-6 D+8  Frank Pallone is being challenged by Anna Little 
NM-3: D+7 Ben Ray Lujan is being challenged by Tim Mullins
NY-2: D+4 Steve Israel is being challenged by John Gomez
NY-4: D+6 Carolyn McCarthy is being challenged by Fran Becker
NY-9: D+5 Anthony Weiner is being challenged by Bob Turner
NY-22 D+6 Maurice Hinchey is being challenged by George Phillips
NY-27 D+4 Brian Higgins is being challenged by Lenny Roberto
OR-4   D+2 Peter DeFazio is being challenged by Art Robinson
PA-13 D+7 Allyson Schwartz is being challenged by Dee Dee Adock
TN-5  D+3 Jim Cooper is being challenged by David Hall 
TX-25 D+6 Lloyd Doggett is being challenged by Donna Campbell 
TX-27: R+2 Salomon Ortiz is being challenged by  Blake Farenthold
TX-28 R+0 Henry Cuellar is being challenged by Bryan Underwood
TX-29 D+8 Gene Greene is being challenged by Roy Morales

Latest Polling Update

The liberal media is elated at the latest CNN/Time poll which shows Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi 51-43 in Washington.  But wait... before everyone gets all wee-weed up over the latest shocking poll, let's remember that this same polling outfit had Murray up 53-44 a month ago.  So there is basically nothing new.  CNN along with the Elway poll has consistently had Murray up by unrealistic margins that neither campaign believes.

Here is another crazy result from this poll.  While it shows Murray leading by 8 among likely voters, Murray is leading Rossi by just 4 among registered voters.  In the polling field, that is the equivalent of saying 4+4=6.

In other good polling news, Pat Toomey has grown his lead by 49-39% according to the latest Rasmussen poll out today.  Also, in Nevada, Angle has maintained her 48-46% lead in the latest LVRJ/Mason-Dixon poll.

PA looks to be in the bag.  The biggest races we need to focus on are Washington and Nevada.  Illinois is also just as close but the truth is I would much rather fight for Rossi and Angle over Mark Kirk.  He is the only Senate candidate who I am not sending any money.

So, Will You Vote for Nancy Pelosi?

In light of all the recent news about Democrat candidates running as John Birchers, I felt is was finally time to call their bluff.  We are in a very good position to take back the House, but there is some polling evidence that some of the red district blue dog frauds are still hanging in there.  Keep in mind that there are 70 Dems in R rated districts.  A handful of them are doing relatively well because they try to block out their party label, run against the liberal platform, attack their Republican opponent from the right, or tout endorsements from the NRA and Chamber of Commerce.

I think we need to start a campaign to call the offices of these clowns and demand that they go on record whether they would vote for Pelosi or Hoyer to be Speaker.  Incumbent Bobby Bright (AL-2) and candidate Roy Herron (TN-8) were the only ones to go on record as opposing Nancy Pelosi.  Now, don't get me wrong.  Even guys like Bright and Herron are frauds because if they really supported their convictions they wouldn't join and bolster a party that negates those very convictions that they purport to hold dear.  We are sick of these frauds who trash Pelosi at home, but then vote for the liberal leadership, committee chairmen, and Democrat Rules Committee members who ensure passage of all the legislation that they claim to detest.  However, if we can get them on  record as declining to take a stand (that's what most will do) we can help their opponents expose their fraudulent claims of being conservative.  If we play our cards right, there shouldn't be a single Democrat in a Republican district after November.

Here is a list of Democrats who are polling relatively strong and still need to be defeated.  Let's try to get a hold of their campaign offices and make them take a stand on Pelosi.  Then, contact your local newspaper or TV/radio station.  I will start with mine in Maryland-1 Frank Kratovil.

What Other Sleeper House Races are Lurking in the Background?

Most of the professional pundits laughed at us last year when we declared there to be 70-80 seats that are easily in play.  Now, it has become yesterday's news.  The real news is that there are sleeper races that are emerging that weren't even factored into the top 100 list of endangered Democrats.  Much of the excitement has been surrounding the race in AZ-7 in which radical leftist Raul Grijalva finds himself trailing political neophyte Ruth McClung by two points in a poll conducted by Magellan Strategies.  This is a D+6 district, but Grijalva, the Chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is way too radical even for a Democrat leaning district.  It turns out that his support for the boycott of his own state might spawn a boycott of his political career.

The question on everyone's mind is if Grijalva is vulnerable, what other supposed safe Democrats are ripe for defeat?  Well, incidentally, Charlie Cook just moved five more "Safe Democrats" to the "Likely Democrat" category.  Aside for AZ-7, the other four were MA-4, MN-8, NM-3, and TX-27.  Here is a list of the Republican candidates that can use an extra few bucks to put them over the top.

Weekly Md Roundup: A Glimmer of Hope Amidst the Darkness

- Much of the political news in Maryland has been focused upon the negative polling data for Bob Ehrlich over the past two weeks.  I think that Ehrlich made a tactical mistake by letting O'Malley go up on the air unanswered for several months in the Baltimore market and several weeks in the DC market.  Hopefully, now that he is hitting O'Malley for covering up negative economic reports, things will begin to shift.

- There were a few positive news items in Maryland this week.  The Carrol County Times reports that Republicans have increased their registration numbers while Democrats have lost several hundred voters.  This might seem insignificant as Carrol County is already a very "red" jurisdiction.  On the other hand, if we would only shore up our support in the conservative parts of the state, we would go a long way in making this a two party state.  A few months ago, there was a report in the Baltimore Sun about Republicans making registration gains in Harford County, another growing red county in Maryland.  The GOP has failed for many years to harness the conservative energy that already exists in much of the state.  There is still a lot of improvement to be made even in the counties that are already considered "in the bag" for Republicans.

- Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies (a respected local polling firm) conducted a poll of the Howard County Executive race and found Democrat incumbent Ken Ulman leading Republican Trent Kittleman by just 49-41.  This is more important than it appears on the surface because Howard County is the 4th most liberal jurisdiction in Maryland, just behind Baltimore City, Montgomery, and Prince George's Counties.  Also, Howard has 30,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, and in addition to the county executive's job, Democrats hold four of five County Council seats and eight of 11 General Assembly seats in Howard.  Ulman is a popular incumbent, and incumbent Democrat County Executives are never seriously threatened in Maryland. 

Another Liberal Poll, This Time from New Hampshire

If there is any semi competitive Senate race that everyone agrees the Republican will easily win, it is New Hampshire. In every recent poll, Republican Kelly Ayotte has held a large and growing lead over Democrat Paul Hodes. Well, the latest poll from American Research Group (ARG) has Hodes trailing Ayotte by just 5 points, 47%-42%. I found that result quite astounding in light of the recent polling data and especially as Republicans are polling much better than that in other states where they are running against incumbents. Then I took a look at the internal numbers and found this from their website:

"The following results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered voters in New Hampshire likely to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election." Also, the partisan breakdown of that poll was 29% R, 31% D, 40% undeclared. That is almost exactly in line with the partisan turnout of 2008. Does anyone really believe that the 2010 turnout will be just as bad for the GOP as 2008, especially is a state that has swung further to the right over the past two years than almost any other?

We are going to see a lot more of these polls over the next few weeks percolating throughout the media as a ploy to gin up enthusiasm with the left wing kooks. I'm not worried about the Senate race, but the Governor's race is crucial for the 2012 Presidential election. Although Democrat Governor Stephen Lynch was not considered vulnerable, Republican John Stephen had pulled within two according to the most recent survey from Rasmussen. This ARG poll had Lynch leading Stephen 51-41. Then again, what good is a sample of registered voters in an election cycle like 2010.

12 Democrat Incumbents Are Behind in New Poll

The Hill just published the results of 12 House polls that they conducted together with America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA).  The Republican challenger is ahead in 11 of them and tied with the Democrat in one district.  Over the next few weeks the Hill will publish poll results in 42 districts.  The survey size is 400 per district with a 4.9% margin of error.  Oh, and by the way, the poll team is being led by Democrat consultant Mark Penn.  Here are the results:

AZ-1: Republican Paul Gosar leads Dem. Ann Kirkpatrick 46-39.
CO-4: Republican Cory Gardner leads Democrat Betsey Markey 44-41.
IL-11: Republican Adam Kinzinger leads Dem. Debbie Halvorson 49-31.
MD-1: Republican Andy Harris leads Dem Frank Kratovil 43-40.
MI-7: Republican Tim Walberg is tied with Dem Mark Schauer at 41.
NV-3: Republican Joe Heck leads Dem Dina Titus 47-44.
NM-2: Republican Steve Pearce leads Dem. Harry Teague 46-42.
OH-15: Republican Steve Stivers leas Dem. Mary Jo Kilroy 47-38.
OH-16: Republican Jim Renacci leads Dem. John Boccieri 42-39.
PA-3: Republican Mike Kelly leads Dem. Kathy Dahlkemper 49-36.
VA-2: Republican Scott Rigell leads Dem. Glenn Nye 42-36.
VA-5: Republican Robert Hurt leads Dem. Tom Periello 45-44

7 of these Democrats are endorsed by the NRA.  We reported yesterday on how they might preserve Pelosi's majority.  Based upon these polls we might be able to conclude that their endorsements don't mean that much after all.

Md-Senate:The Washington Post and Their Fraudulent Poll

Anyone who didn't believe that last week's Washington Post poll showing O'Malley leading Ehrlich 52-41 was pulled out of a cereal box is sure to admit it now.  They are out with the second half of their new poll of the Senate race which shows Barbara Mikulski leading Republican Eric Wargotz 61-29!  That's a 32 point margin!  Now, I admit that Wargotz doesn't have much of a chance to defeat Mikulski, but does anyone really believe that she will do better in 2010 than most years?  The last Rasmussen poll had Mikulski leading by just 16 points.  Then again, what do we care if the liberal media convinces themselves that they are ahead.

What Does a Liberal Poll Look Like?

As the liberal media descends into a state of panic over the impending doom of their political party, they will continue to publish polls with results that are not only unlikely, but impossible.  I was going to do an analysis of the crazy Washington Post poll that has O'Malley up 11 over Ehrlich, but I see that Red Maryland has sufficiently debunked those results already.  Instead we will move onto the latest Newsweek poll which has the Democrats up 5 in the generic ballot question among registered voters and 8 among definite voters.  Any poll which shows the Democrats doing so well at this point is suspect.  However, when it comes from a discredited news organization like Newsweek, it is pure fiction.

First, any poll that has the Democrats doing better among definite voters than registered voters is completely fabricated, irrespective of the specific numbers reported.  Second, as we reported earlier regarding the Kentucky Senate poll, you have to examine the party ID weightings.  Any poll that shows a more unfavorable model for the GOP than that of 2008 is completely bogus.  This Newsweek poll does exactly that.  They sample 39% D, 29% R, 32% I.  Even in the disastrous year of Obama in 2008 the turnout model was 39 D, 32 R, 29 I.  Then again, what would you expect from a publication that was purchased for one dollar!

KY-Senate: Don't Believe Every Poll You See

Here is an important piece of advice for those who are monitoring the 2010 election polling data on a daily basis.  Look at how the pollster breaks down the party identification.  The Survey USA poll of the Kentucky Senate race that was released this weekend should serve as a classic example of how erroneous party ID weightings can distort a survey.  After showing Rand Paul with a 15 point lead over leftist Jack Conway just three weeks ago, Survey USA now has Conway within two.  But here is the kicker.  The poll taken earlier this month had a party ID breakdown of 47 D 10 I 42 R.  That is actually slightly less favorable to the GOP than the disastrous 2008 turnout of 47 D 15 I 38 R (in which McCain still won).  Remember that there is no doubt that there will be more Republicans turning out to vote in Kentucky this year.  The only question is how much more?  However, nobody disputes that the turnout figures will be much more favorable than those of the past two elections cycles.

This brings me to the most recent Survey USA poll that shows Paul leading Conway by a paltry 49-47 margin.  The party ID weightings of the survey were as follows:  51 D 12 I 38 R!  Does anyone really believe that a majority of the voter turnout in a staunch conservative state, in a staunch conservative year, in a state where Obama's approval ratings are in the toilet, will be Democrats?  Is it really possible for voter turnout models in 2010 to be worse for the GOP than 2008?  I have no proof that Jack Conway is not on the rise, however if he is, it will not be as a result of an impossible voter turnout model.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a good case study of what a difference party ID weightings have on the survey results.  Towards the beginning of the cycle, they had polls that showed Senator Burr in North Carolina in a dead heat with his opponent.  This is because they had similar turnout models to the abovementioned Survey USA poll.  Now that they weight their surveys to reflect a more realistic turnout model for 2010, most of their polls are spelling doom for the Democrats.  The devil is always in the details.

Rating that Ever Growing List of House Races

Here is a list of the 39 Democrat held seats that are the lowest hanging fruit.  If the Republicans are to take back the House, the pathway to victory would probably run through these districts first.  The amazing thing is that there are dozens of other relatively easy pickups beyond this list of 39.  This list doesn't even include many of the Democrats that are occupying deep red districts.  Some of them, like Boren in OK or Minnick in ID will be harder to knock off, but many of them are just behind those listed here.

 Ark-1 (open-Berry), Ark-2 (open-Snyder), AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick), AZ-5 (Mitchell), CO-4 (Markey), FL-2 (Boyd), FL-8 (Grayson), FL-24 (Kosmas), IL-11 (Halverson), IL-14 (Foster), IN-8 (Ellsworth), IN-9 (Hill), KS-3 (open Moore), LA-3 (open-Melancom), MD-1 (Kratovil), Mich-1 (open-Stupak), Mich-7 (Schauer), Mis-1 (Childers), ND-At-Large (Pomeroy), NH-1 (Shea-Porter),NH-2 (open-Hodes), NM-2 (Teague), NV-3 (Titus), NY-29 (open-Massa), OH-1 (Driehaus), OH-15 (Kilroy), OH-16 (Boccieri), PA-3 (Dahlkemper), PA-7(open-Sestak), PA-11 (Kanjorski), SC-5 (Spratt), SD-At-large (Sandlin), TN-6 (open-Gordon), TN-8 (open-Tanner), TX-17 (Edwards), VA-2 (Nye), VA-5 (Perriello), WA-3, Wis-7 (open-Obey)

House Polling Update

Three more Republican House polls were reported yesterday.

CT-5: An internal poll for Sam Caligiuri conducted by Adam Geller of National Research found Republican Caligiuri trailing Congressman Chris Murphy by a slim 40-39 margin.  The poll which was conducted on August 30-31, also found that only 36% believe Chris Murphy has performed his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election, while 45% think it’s time for a new person.  Also, the Republicans lead the generic ballot 41-38 in this district.  This clearly indicates that wants Caligiuri garners more name recognition he will be in a solid position to win.
FL-24:  Sandy Adams leads Suzanne Kosmas 49-37 according to a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on Sept 1-2.  The poll also showed that only 38% of the district approved of Obama and 34% approved of Obamacare, while 63% oppose it.
WV-1:  Democrat Mike Oliverio is leading Republican David McKinley 41-36, according to a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.  However, the poll finds that McKinley leads Oliverio 53-40 among voters who are familiar with the views of both candidates. 

This is a pretty amazing dichotomy because WV-1 is West Virginia's most conservative district, as it is rated R+9, while CT-5 is rated D+2.  Yet, the Republican is polling better in CT-5.  This clearly has a lot to do with the fact that Oliverio is campaigning against Pelosi and is having some degree of success in lying about his true ideology.  As we pointed out before, Republicans need to remind voters in "blue dog districts" that any and every Democrat will vote for Pelosi to be Speaker of the Mosque.  This is yet another example of a district in which the more successful the Democrat is at assailing Pelosi, the more likely it will be that she will remain Speaker.  FL-24 is rated R+4 and has long been considered one of the most likely seats to flip because Kosmas is not even pretending to be a blue dog.

The full list of House polls can be found here.

Update:  If some of the polling news doesn't seem to be reflective of a massive red wave, this report certainly does.  According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, Republicans are garnering the most support in the primaries relative to the Democrats since 1930!

John Raese Surging in West Virginia

John Raese

According to a new Rasmussen poll, conservative Republican John Raese has pulled within 6 points of Democrat Governor Joe Manchin in West Virginia.  Manchin now leads Raese 48%-42%, sharply lower than his 51%-35% lead just one month ago.

Also, this poll provides us with even better news.  Obama has a 70% disapproval rating in the Mountain State!  This is very significant because Manchin is trying to sell himself as a conservative Democrats in order to pander to his constituents.  In a normal year, Manchin would probably be successful.  (See our article on the successful dog and pony show of the blue dogs here.)  However, this poll provides us with more solid evidence that the dog and pony show is over.  Obama, with his 70% disapproval rating in WV, will make it all but impossible for Manchin to run as a Democrat, while successfully feigning to be culturally conservative.

I found it amusing how all of the political pundits wrote off this Senate race as a solid Democrat retention.  They don't realize how profoundly different this election cycle is from all others.  Just because the Republican challenger is not competitive from day one, doesn't mean that he won't ultimately make it a race.  Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Washington are definitely proof of this.  Keep in mind that Raese is still largely unknown throughout most of the state and he is only 6% behind the sitting governor, who has 100% name ID and an enviable approval rating.  This will change quickly as West Virgina is a cheap advertising market and Raese can at least partially self-fund.  John Raese is a solid red meat conservative on every economic and social issue.  He came within a few thousand votes of knocking off Senator Jay Rockeffeller in 1984.

This race is just beginning and I believe we will win it.  Everyone thought that RINO Congresswomen Shelly Moore Capito was our only hope of flipping this seat.  They were wrong.  Raese actually has a better chance of winning against Manchin, and it is clear that his voting record will be superior to Capito's dismal performance.  This increases the number of Democrat seats in play to 13.  That means that we no longer need to run the table in order to reclaim control of the Senate.  A different sort of election year indeed!  Let's make sure Raese has enough money to combat Manchin's war chest and keep him up on the airwaves.

Update:  Gallup just came out with their latest generic ballot poll and the GOP leads 51%-41%.  That is the largest margin in the 50+ year history of the Gallup poll.  And the political consultants don't think that deep red West Virginia is in play?  It's hilarious to read the headline from CQ Politics, " Manchin Jumps to Early Lead".  This people live in an alternative universe.