If there is any semi competitive Senate race that everyone agrees the Republican will easily win, it is New Hampshire. In every recent poll, Republican Kelly Ayotte has held a large and growing lead over Democrat Paul Hodes. Well, the latest poll from American Research Group (ARG) has Hodes trailing Ayotte by just 5 points, 47%-42%. I found that result quite astounding in light of the recent polling data and especially as Republicans are polling much better than that in other states where they are running against incumbents. Then I took a look at the internal numbers and found this from their website:
"The following results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of registered voters in New Hampshire likely to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election." Also, the partisan breakdown of that poll was 29% R, 31% D, 40% undeclared. That is almost exactly in line with the partisan turnout of 2008. Does anyone really believe that the 2010 turnout will be just as bad for the GOP as 2008, especially is a state that has swung further to the right over the past two years than almost any other?
We are going to see a lot more of these polls over the next few weeks percolating throughout the media as a ploy to gin up enthusiasm with the left wing kooks. I'm not worried about the Senate race, but the Governor's race is crucial for the 2012 Presidential election. Although Democrat Governor Stephen Lynch was not considered vulnerable, Republican John Stephen had pulled within two according to the most recent survey from Rasmussen. This ARG poll had Lynch leading Stephen 51-41. Then again, what good is a sample of registered voters in an election cycle like 2010.