Saturday, October 02, 2010

What Does a Liberal Poll Look Like?

As the liberal media descends into a state of panic over the impending doom of their political party, they will continue to publish polls with results that are not only unlikely, but impossible.  I was going to do an analysis of the crazy Washington Post poll that has O'Malley up 11 over Ehrlich, but I see that Red Maryland has sufficiently debunked those results already.  Instead we will move onto the latest Newsweek poll which has the Democrats up 5 in the generic ballot question among registered voters and 8 among definite voters.  Any poll which shows the Democrats doing so well at this point is suspect.  However, when it comes from a discredited news organization like Newsweek, it is pure fiction.

First, any poll that has the Democrats doing better among definite voters than registered voters is completely fabricated, irrespective of the specific numbers reported.  Second, as we reported earlier regarding the Kentucky Senate poll, you have to examine the party ID weightings.  Any poll that shows a more unfavorable model for the GOP than that of 2008 is completely bogus.  This Newsweek poll does exactly that.  They sample 39% D, 29% R, 32% I.  Even in the disastrous year of Obama in 2008 the turnout model was 39 D, 32 R, 29 I.  Then again, what would you expect from a publication that was purchased for one dollar!

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