Monday, September 06, 2010

District by District House Polls and the Impending GOP Wave


Below the fold, I have compiled a comprehensive list of all the recent polls of competitive house races.  Statewide Senate and Gubernatorial polling data are readily available but resources on House race polling are quite scarce.  So here is the list for you political junkies out there (let me know if there is anything missing). 

The striking thing about these polls is that they foreshadow an impending red tsunami in November.  Yes, these are mainly internal polls or surveys conducted by political consulting firms, but they provide a general picture of the house playing field.  Furthermore we can compare these results to those of past election cycles and conclude that there are a record amount of incumbent Democrats who are either trailing their Republican challengers or leading within the margin of error.  This is quite astounding because House races, unlike Senate races, are much more volatile.  Due to the lack of name ID for the challengers, less publicity, and a more unpredictable electorate, polls usually don’t show so many challengers doing this well two months before an election.  In fact, in 2006, when the Democrats picked up 31 seats, only 11 Democrat challengers were leading in pre-election polling data, according to the Cook Report.

The other striking thing about the polling landscape is the amount of Democrat leaning districts in which the Republicans are polling strong.  There are currently 69 Democrats holding seats that are rated as Republican districts by Charlie Cook’s partisan voting index.  That means that if Republicans would only win R leaning districts they would pick up 69 seats, almost twice the minimum necessary to flip the House.  The House polling data suggests that there are a few dozen Democrat seats beyond those 69 seats that are either in danger of flipping or potentially competitive. 

Now, obviously not all 69 Republican challengers are in solid position to win in November.  We have the rare anomalies such as Idaho-1 in which incumbent Democrat Walt Minnick is still leading by a comfortable margin.  However, in most of the other competitive districts where the Democrat is leading, the challenger has less than 50% name ID.  Almost every Republican who has a name ID any where close to that of the Democrat, is leading in the polls.  The cumulative results of these polls indicate that there is almost no limit to how immense this red wave will ultimately be.

Here is the list of district polls for the competitive House races.  According to a Charlie Cook report, there are 32 Republicans leading, and that report was filed before American Action Forum came out with 6 more polls that had Republicans ahead.  I have a total of 51 Democrat seats in which the Republican is tied or ahead.  There are a number of others in which the Republican trails by less than 6 points.   Also, many of the polls are old and were taken before the environment got as toxic as the current disaster for the Democrats.  Furthermore, this list doesn't include many districts that it is so clear the Republicans will win, they are not even deemed competitive anymore.  I couldn’t find all of them, but 90% should be included in the list.  Most of these polls are of districts that are either incumbent or open Democrat seats.


Alabama

CD-5: (open R) Republican Mo Brooks leads Democrat Steve Raby 48-37 (Public Opinion Strategies 8/23)
Arizona

CD-1: “Despite Representative Ann Kirkpatrick having 95 percent name ID (with a 42 to 37 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Paul Gosar’s 46 percent (23 to 6 percent favorable), Gosar leads on the ballot by a 47 to 41 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
CD-5:  “Despite Representative Harry Mitchell having 97 percent name ID (with a 42 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Schweikert’s 77 percent (33 to 18 percent favorable), Schweikert leads on the ballot by a 50 to 44 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
CD-8: “Despite Representative Gabrielle Giffords having 99 percent name ID (with a 52 to 41 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jesse Kelly’s 78 percent (33 to 25 percent favorable), Giffords and Kelly are currently tied on the ballot at 46 percent each.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)

Arkansas

CD-1:  (open D) Republican Rick Crawford leads Dem Chad Causey 48-32 (Talk Business poll, 8/17)
CD-2:  (open D)  Republican Tim Griffin leads Dem. Joyce Elliott 52-35(Business Talk Research, 8/17)
CD-3 (Incumbent R) Republican Steve Womack leads Democrat Whitaker 55-31 (Business talk research, 8/25)
California

CD-11:  “Despite Representative Jerry McNerney having 93 percent name ID (with a 41 to 34 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Harmer’s 47 percent (19 to 8 percent favorable), Harmer currently leads McNerney on the ballot by a razor-thin 45 to 44 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
CD-47: “Despite Representative Loretta Sanchez having 96 percent name ID (with a 46 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Van Tran’s 67 percent (26 to 18 percent favorable), Sanchez leads on the ballot by just a 45 to 43 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
Colorado

CD-3: Republican Scott Tipton leads Democrat Congressman John Salazar 49-43. (Magellan Strategies)
“Despite Representative John Salazar having 98 percent name ID (with a 45 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Tipton’s 73 percent (28 to 19 percent favorable), Tipton leads on the ballot by a 51 to 43 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
CD-4: “Despite Representative Betsey Markey having 98 percent name ID (with a 37 to 50 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Cory Gardner’s 57 percent (23 to 13 percent favorable), Gardner leads on the ballot by a 50 to 39 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
CD-7:  Republican Ryan Frasier leads Democrat Congressman Perlmutter 40-39, generic R over generic D 45-39.  (Magellan Strategies, 8/27/10)
Connecticut

CD-4:  Dem. Congressman Jim Himes leads Republican Dan Debicella by just 46-42.  Debicella has just 35% name ID.  (American Action Forum, 8/1)
CD-5:  Dem. Congressman Chris Murphy leads Republican Sam Caligiuri by just 40-39. (National Research Inc, 8/31)
Delaware
At-large:  (open R) Dem. Carney leads Republican Rollins 48-32 (PPP/Daily Kooks, 8/8)

Florida
CD-2:  Republican Southerland is leading Dem. Congressman Allen Boyd 52-37(Terrance Group, 4/13)
CD-8:  Dem. Congressman Alan Grayson leads Daniel Webster 40-27(PPP, end of August)
CD-24:  Republican Sandy Adams leads Dem. Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas 49-37(Public Opinion Strategies, 9/2)

Georgia
CD-2:  Dem. Congressman Sanford Bishop leads Republican Mike Keown by just 50-44, despite Keown’s 44% name id. (Public Opinion Strategies, 8/3) 
CD-8:  Dem. Congressman Jim Marshall leads Republican Austin Scott 44-39(American Viewpoint, August)


Hawaii

CD-1 Rep. Congressman Charles Djou leads Dem Hanabussa 50-42 (Terrance, 7/26)

Idaho
CD-1:  Dem. Cong. Walt Minnick leads Republican Raul Labrador 37-27(Labrador internal, 7/13)

Illinois
CD-8:   Republican Joe Walsh is leading Dem. Cong. Mellissa Bean 38-37(We Ask America, 3/22)
CD-10:  (open R)Dem. Dan Seals leads Republican Bob Dold 43-40 (We ask America, 8/4)
CD-11:  Republican Adam Kinzinger leads Dem. Cong. Debbie Halversom 51-40(Public Opinion Strategies, August)
CD-14:  Republican Randy Hultgren leads Dem. Cong. Bill Foster 44-37(We ask America, 8/4)
CD-17: Republican bobby Schilling is leading Dem. Congressman Phil Hare 45-32( Magellan Strategies, 7/12)
Indiana
CD-2: Democrat Congressman Joe Donnelly leads Republican Jackie Walorski 46-44 (American Action Forum, 8/21)
CD-9:  Dem. Cong. Baron Hill leads Republican Todd Young 41-34, but he is well below 50% (Public Opinion Strategies, May)
Iowa

CD-3 Republican Zaun is leading Democrat Congressman Boswell 51-41 (American Action Forum, 8/21)
Republican Brad Zaun is leading Dem. Congressman Boswell 45-38(Victory Enterprise, August)

Kentucky

CD-3:     Dem. Congressman John Yarmuth leads Republican Todd Lally by just 47-45. (Survey USA/ WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll, 8/30)

Maine
CD-1:    Dem. Cong. Chellie Pingree leads Republican Dean Scontras 47-38( Public Opinion Polling, 9/6)


CD-2:  Dem. Congressman Mike Michaud leads Republican Jason Levesque 45-38 ( Public Opinion Polling, 9/6)

Maryland

CD-1:  Republican Andy Harris leads Democrat Cong. Frank Kratovil 39-36(Publica Opinion Strategies, 4/26)

Michigan

CD-1: (Open D) Republican Dan Benishek is leading Democrat Gary McDowell 45-29 (We ask America, 8/4)
CD-7:  Republican Tim Walberg leads Democrat Congressman Mark Schauer 50-40 (American Action Forum, 8/21)

Minnesota

CD-6:  Congresswoman Michelle Bachman leads Democrat Tarryl Clark 48-39. (Survey USA, 7/11)
Mississippi

CD-1:  Republican Alan Nunnellee is leading Dem. Congressman Travis Childers 50-42 (Terrance Group, 6/9)
Missouri

CD-3:  Democrat Congressman Russ Carnahan leads Republican Ed Martin 54-38, but Martin only has 43% name ID. (American Action Forum, 8/21)
Democrat Congressman Russ Carnahan leads Republican Ed Martin 48-39(WeaskAmerica, 8/17)
CD-4:  Dem. Congressman Ike Skelton leads Republican Vicky Hartzler 45-42(WeaskAmerica, 8/17)

Nevada
CD-3: “Despite Representative Dina Titus having 99 percent name ID (with a 46 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Joe Heck’s 78 percent (32 to 21 percent favorable), Heck leads Titus on the ballot by a 48 to 45 percent margin.” (American action Forum, 8/29)
New Hampshire

CD-1: Republican Frank Guinta leads Democrat Cong. Carol-Shea Porter 42-38 (WMUR, 4/21)
CD-2: (open D)  Republican Charlie Bass leads Democrat Swett 44-27(WMUR, 4/21)
New Jersey

CD-3:  Dem. Congressman John Adler leads Republican Jim Runyan 31-25. Republican Jim Runyan leads 36-35 among those likely to vote.
 (Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics, 8/5-8, registered voters).
CD-6: Dem. Congressman Frank Pallone leads Anne Little by a slim 40-34 margin despite Little’s low name recognition.  (National Research Inc. 8/23)
New Mexico
CD-1:  Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich leads Republican Jon Barela 47-41 (Albuquerque Journal Aug. 29)

Republican Jon Barela leads Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich 51-45 (Survey USA KOB-TV poll, 7/26)

“Despite Representative Martin Heinrich having 97 percent name ID (with a 46 to 39 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jon Barela’s 48 percent (20 to 11 percent favorable), Heinrich is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Barela by a 49 to 42 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
CD-2:  Democrat Congressman Harry Teague leads Republican Steve Pearce 45-42 (Albuquerque Journal Aug. 29) 

Republican Steve Pearce led Dem. Harry Teague 43-41(PPP, February)
CD-3:  Democrat Congressman Ben Ray Lujan leads Republican Tom Mullins 42-36(PPP, 2/20)
New York
CD-1:  Dem. Congressman Tim Bishop leads Republican Randy Altschuler by just 47-45(Survey USA, 1/18)
CD-20: Dem. Congressman Scott Murphy leads Republican Chris Gibson by just 45-40 despite Gibson’s 37% name ID. (American Action Forum, 8/1)
CD-23:  Dem. Congressman Bill Owens leads Republican Matt Doheny by a slim 41-39.  Doheny has just 48% name ID. (American Action Forum, 8/1)
CD-25:  Dem. Congressman Dan Maffei leads Republican Ann Marie Buerkle by a slim 44-41 with Buerkle having just 50% name ID.  (American Action Forum, 8/1)
North Carolina

CD-2:  Republican Renee Ellmers is leading Dem. Congressman Bob Ethridge 39-38(Survey USA, 6/16)
CD-4:  Republican BJ Lawson is tied with Dem. Congressman David Price at 46(Action Solutions, 8/11)
CD-7:  Dem. Congressman Mike McIntyre leads Republican Ilario Pantino by only 45-42(Civitas Institute of Raleigh, 5/17)
CD-8:  Dem Congressman Larry Kissell leads Republican Harold Johnson39-34 (POS, 8/30)
CD-11:  Dem. Heath Schuler leads Republican Jeff Miller 51-34 (Anzalone Liszt)
Dem. Heath Schuler leads Republican Jeff Miller 45-44 (Survey USA, 7/26)

North Dakota
At-large:  Republican Nick Berg is leading Dem. Cong. Earl Pomeroy 53-44(Rasmussen, 8/11)
Ohio

CD-1:  Republican Steve Chabot leads Dem. Congressman Steve Dreihaus 47-45 (American Action Forum, 8/21)
Republican Steve Chabot leads Dem. Congressman Steve Dreihaus 51-39(We ask America, 8/4)
CD-12:  (Inc. R) Republican Patrick Tiberi is leading Dem. Paula Brooks 51-34(We ask America, 8/4)
CD-13: Democrat Congresswomen Betty Sutton leads Republican challenger Tom Ganley 43-41 (American Action Forum, 8/21)
CD-15: Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy 49-44 (American Action Forum, 8/21)
Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy 46-41 (We ask America, 8/4)
CD-16: Republican Jim Renacci leads Dem. Congressman john Bocierri 49-35 (American Action Forum, 8/21)
CD-18:  Republican Bob Gibbs and Dem. Congressman Zach Space are tied at 43 each. (On Message inc., 8/4)
Oregon

CD-5: “Despite Representative Kurt Schrader having 83 percent name ID (with a 34 to 24 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Bruun’s 40 percent (11 to 7 percent favorable), Schrader is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Bruun by a 44 to 36 percent margin.” (American Action Forum, 8/29)
Republican Scott Bruun leads Dem. Congressman Kurt Schrader 41-38.  The generic R is leading 44-37. (Moore Information, internal poll, 8/19)
Pennsylvania

CD-3: Republican Mike Kelly leads Dem. Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper 52-38 despite having just 62% name ID. (American Action Forum, 8/1)
CD-7:  Republican Pat Meehan leads Dem. Bryan Lentz 47-26(Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates, 6/17)
CD-8:  Fitzpatrick leads Murphy 48-41. (Public Opinion Strategies)
CD-10: Republican Tom Marino leads Dem. Congressman Chris Carney 52-37, despite having just 59% name ID. (American Action Forum, 8/1)
CD-11:  Republican Lou Barletta leads Dem. Congressman Paul Kanjorski 52-41. (American Action Forum, 8/1)
CD-12:  Republican Tim Burns leads Dem. Congressman Mark Critz 44-40. (American Action Forum, 8/1)
South Carolina
CD-5:  Republican Mick Mulvaney is tied with Dem. Congressman John Spratt at 46%. (Public Opinion Strategies, 7/25)
South Dakota
At-large: Republican Kristi Noem is leading Dem. Cong. Stephanie Sandlin 51-42 (Rasmussen, 8/3)
Tennessee
CD-8:  Republican Steve Fincher leads Dem. Roy Herron 47-37(Terrance Group, 8/11)

Texas
CD-17:  Republican Bill Flores leads Democrat Cong. Chet Edwards 53-41(On Message, 5/3)
CD-23:  Republican Quinco Conseco leads Dem. Congressman Ciro Rodriguez 43-37(OnMessage, 8/15)
Virginia
CD-2:  Republican Scott Riggell leads Dem. Cong. Glen Nye 41-35( Public Opinion Strategies, 6/19)
CD-3:  Republican Robert Hurt leads Dem. Congressman Tom Perriello 49-43.  (American Action Forum, 8/1)
Republican Robert Hurt leads Dem. Congressman Tom Perriello 58-35 (Survey USA WDBJ-TV, 7/20)
Republican Robert Hurt leads Dem. Perriello 61-35(Survey USA, 9/2)
CD-9:  Dem. Congressman Rick Boucher leads Republican Morgan Griffith 50-40. (Survey USA WDBJ-TV, 9/2)
CD-11:  Republican Keith Fimian leads Dem. Cong. Gerry Connolly 40-35(McLaughlin & Assoc.)
Washington

CD-2:  Republican Joe Koster leads Dem. Congressman Rick Larson 50-46(Survey USA, 9/2)
CD-3 (open D seat) Republican Jaime Herrera is leading Democrat Denny Heck 54-41 (Survey USA-King 5 TV, 8/21)

West Virginia
CD-1: Democrat Mike Oliverio is leading Republican David McKinley 41-36.  (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/2)
CD-3:  Democrat Congressman Nick Rahall leads Republican Spike Maynard 53-37.  Maynard has 25% less name ID.  (American Action Forum, 8/1)

Wisconsin
CD-3:  Dem. Congressman Ron Kind leads the Republican 44-38 (POS, 7/18)
CD-7:  Republican Sean Duffy leads Dem. Julie Lassa 42-33(We Ask America, 8/4)
CD-8: Republican Reid Ribble leads Dem. Congressman Steve Kagen 49-39 (American Action Forum, 8/21)

1 comment:

Chris said...

Be Heard

Across the country and in Fairfield County, most Americans opposed the healthcare bill. But Jim Himes didn’t hear us and voted yes.

The stimulus? Most of us didn’t want it. Himes didn’t listen. He voted yes.

Cap and trade? In Connecticut, most voters said no. In Washington, Jim Himes voted yes.

End the secret ballot in union elections? Again, his constituents said no. Jim Himes voted yes.

If Jim Himes does not listen to you, then you should know that you are not alone. By a wide margin, voters across the country and in Fairfield County oppose the Nancy Pelosi and Jim Himes’ position on the issues. If you want to send Jim Himes a message that he can hear, you can support his opponent, Dan Debicella, here: https://debicella.blue-swarm.com/donate.

Jim Himes can’t hear us. On November 2nd, let’s turn up the volume.