The NRA is Helping Preserve the Anti Gun Democrat Majority

Believe it or not, the only ones who might help Nancy Pelosi save her House majority are those who run legislative affairs at the NRA.  So called Blue Dog Democrats across the nation are campaigning as red meat conservatives in their home districts, while running deceptive ads about their Republican opponents.  They campaign as if they have nothing to do with the Democrat Party that they propelled to power and which passed all of the nefarious legislation that they purport to oppose.  The sick irony is that the more successful these liars are in distancing themselves from Pelosi, the more likely it will be that Pelosi will remain Speaker.  Here is my previous report on the need to expose the blue dogs.  Also, check out the Club for Growth's excellent report on the lie of the conservative Democrat.

Fortunately, as long as the conservative rhetoric is coming from the Democrat candidates themselves, the voters aren't buying it.  However, when the NRA parachutes in and endorses that Democrat for reelection over their 2nd amendment champion Republican opponents, people might give credence to their claims of being born again conservatives.  The sad thing is that the NRA is endorsing Democrats in the very districts that we must win in order to obtain 39 seats.  Here is a list of some of the Democrats who the NRA is endorsing that could cost us the majority: 

Md-Senate:The Washington Post and Their Fraudulent Poll

Anyone who didn't believe that last week's Washington Post poll showing O'Malley leading Ehrlich 52-41 was pulled out of a cereal box is sure to admit it now.  They are out with the second half of their new poll of the Senate race which shows Barbara Mikulski leading Republican Eric Wargotz 61-29!  That's a 32 point margin!  Now, I admit that Wargotz doesn't have much of a chance to defeat Mikulski, but does anyone really believe that she will do better in 2010 than most years?  The last Rasmussen poll had Mikulski leading by just 16 points.  Then again, what do we care if the liberal media convinces themselves that they are ahead.

What Does a Liberal Poll Look Like?

As the liberal media descends into a state of panic over the impending doom of their political party, they will continue to publish polls with results that are not only unlikely, but impossible.  I was going to do an analysis of the crazy Washington Post poll that has O'Malley up 11 over Ehrlich, but I see that Red Maryland has sufficiently debunked those results already.  Instead we will move onto the latest Newsweek poll which has the Democrats up 5 in the generic ballot question among registered voters and 8 among definite voters.  Any poll which shows the Democrats doing so well at this point is suspect.  However, when it comes from a discredited news organization like Newsweek, it is pure fiction.

First, any poll that has the Democrats doing better among definite voters than registered voters is completely fabricated, irrespective of the specific numbers reported.  Second, as we reported earlier regarding the Kentucky Senate poll, you have to examine the party ID weightings.  Any poll that shows a more unfavorable model for the GOP than that of 2008 is completely bogus.  This Newsweek poll does exactly that.  They sample 39% D, 29% R, 32% I.  Even in the disastrous year of Obama in 2008 the turnout model was 39 D, 32 R, 29 I.  Then again, what would you expect from a publication that was purchased for one dollar!

Md-Gov: O'Malley Caught Lying About Economic Data

If anyone wants to know why we don't trust the wolves (government statists) to guard the hen house (our economic prosperity) look no farther than the O'Malley administration.  Martin O'Malley has been campaigning all over the state and lying to everyone about a non-existent economic recovery in Maryland.  As it turns out, O'Malley's Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation (DLLR) was hiding an internal report all along that showed that economic growth has "stalled."  One young staffer mistakenly posted the report on the DLLR website, but was told to immediately remove it before people would discover the truth about O'Malley's economic policies.  Fortunately, they were caught in the act.  The Washington Post Reports:

Ken Holt Shows Why He Should be Baltimore County Executive

Republican Ken Holt

My district in Baltimore County has been represented by arch-socialist snob, Kevin Kamenetz for 16 years.  Last night was the first time that I've heard someone finally take him to task for his lying about issues concerning taxation and spending, corruption, and corporate cronyism with local land developers.  The man who took him down was Republican Ken Holt.  Holt is challenging Kamenetz for what Democrats thought would be a coronation for County Executive.  Holt and Kamenetz debated last night on a new radio show on WCBM hosted by Jay Liner of "All Politics is Local".

You can listen to the full audio of the debate here.  (Courtesy of Bryan Sears of Patuxent Publishing Company)

Some of the highlights included Holt's dressing down of Kamenetz's 10 year lie about not raising property taxes in the county.  Holt pointed out that they raised the assessed property values so much that it is tantamount to a tax increase.  Also, when asked about an intangible quality that he posses over his opponent, Holt tersely replied, "Honesty".  One of my favorite moments was when Holt reminded Kamenetz that for his million dollars worth of ads he only received 40,000 votes.  (And according to the Gazette, a third of that came from early voting, of course.)  Towards the end of the debate, Holt admonished Kamenetz for his nasty and misleading primary campaign against fellow councilman Joe Bartenfelder.  To everyone's surprise, Bartenfelder called in and gave the following haunting retort to Kamenetz's promise to run a facts and issues based campaign:

“Kevin, buddy,.. If we're gonna have factual dialogue between now and the general [election], let’s make sure you stick with exactly what the facts are, buddy, OK?

“Because, you know, I wouldn't want any more of those misrepresented ads out there.”

KY-Senate: Don't Believe Every Poll You See

Here is an important piece of advice for those who are monitoring the 2010 election polling data on a daily basis.  Look at how the pollster breaks down the party identification.  The Survey USA poll of the Kentucky Senate race that was released this weekend should serve as a classic example of how erroneous party ID weightings can distort a survey.  After showing Rand Paul with a 15 point lead over leftist Jack Conway just three weeks ago, Survey USA now has Conway within two.  But here is the kicker.  The poll taken earlier this month had a party ID breakdown of 47 D 10 I 42 R.  That is actually slightly less favorable to the GOP than the disastrous 2008 turnout of 47 D 15 I 38 R (in which McCain still won).  Remember that there is no doubt that there will be more Republicans turning out to vote in Kentucky this year.  The only question is how much more?  However, nobody disputes that the turnout figures will be much more favorable than those of the past two elections cycles.

This brings me to the most recent Survey USA poll that shows Paul leading Conway by a paltry 49-47 margin.  The party ID weightings of the survey were as follows:  51 D 12 I 38 R!  Does anyone really believe that a majority of the voter turnout in a staunch conservative state, in a staunch conservative year, in a state where Obama's approval ratings are in the toilet, will be Democrats?  Is it really possible for voter turnout models in 2010 to be worse for the GOP than 2008?  I have no proof that Jack Conway is not on the rise, however if he is, it will not be as a result of an impossible voter turnout model.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a good case study of what a difference party ID weightings have on the survey results.  Towards the beginning of the cycle, they had polls that showed Senator Burr in North Carolina in a dead heat with his opponent.  This is because they had similar turnout models to the abovementioned Survey USA poll.  Now that they weight their surveys to reflect a more realistic turnout model for 2010, most of their polls are spelling doom for the Democrats.  The devil is always in the details.

Will the Conservative Wave Sweep Baltimore County?

We continue our focus on local elections as we highlight some key aspects of the elections in Baltimore County.

Baltimore County has one of the most diverse political constituencies of any jurisdiction in Maryland.  This growing county of 800,000 has a staunch conservative area in the north with some other pockets in the east and southwest.  There is a large black population on the west side which votes overwhelmingly Democrat.  There is a strong community of Reagan Democrats in the east, and an area of Jewish liberal Democrats in the northwest.  BC used to lean Republican, but in the past two decades there has been an influx of Democrat voters that has tipped the balance of power in local elections to the left.  The Democrats have held the position of County Executive for 16 years, and control 6 of the 7 seats on the council.  The Democrats also hold 14 of the 21 House seats, and 6 of the 8 Senate seats.

All early indications point to a positive year for the GOP in Baltimore County.  The question on the table today is if we can make it a sweep.  Despite the overwhelming Democrat registration edge in the county, BC is still a competitive area.  In fact, Ehrlich won Baltimore County by 22% in 2002, and even in 2006, when Republicans were decimated across the state and country, he still won by 3%.  There is no doubt that Ehrlich will perform much better this year, irrespective of whether he wins statewide.  This means that we have a historic opportunity to make vital gains during this year's midterms.  Here are some important races to watch:

John Barrasso (R-WY) for Republican Senate Conference Vice Chariman

As we approach the November elections we need to start contemplating our fight for control of GOP leadership posts.  After all, what good is a Republican Majority if it is lead by governing class statists?  Until recently most of the Senate leadership posts were held by non-conservatives.  McConnel is Minority Leader, Kyle is Whip, Lamar Alexander is Conference Chairman, and Murkowski was Conference Vice Chair.  Now that traitor Murkowski was forced out of her leadership position it is imperative that we replace her with a true conservative. 

Roll Call is reporting welcome news that John Barrasso will run for Conference Vice Chairman.  Barrasso is one of the few solid conservatives in the Senate and has the support of Tom Coburn for his leadership bid.  This is a good start, but we need to move our few conservatives into higher positions of leadership if our control of congress is to mean anything.

The RINOs Declared War on us Long Ago, It's Time We Reciprocate

The liberal Republicans were never on our side, and the events of this year only prove the obvious.  They are not moderates.  These government statists are  literally Republicans in name only.  They fundamentally agree with the Democrats on almost every core issue.  These are not the people that we can have an inclusive tent with, or any tent for that matter.

I used to be one of those pundits who saw value in RINO's on a very limited basis, in a situation "where the conservative cannot win".  The circumstances surrounding Arlen Specter, Bob Bennett, Charlie Crist, Bill McCollum, Lisa Murkowski, and Mike Castle, in conjunction with the lessons of the failed Republican congress of the Bush era, teaches us that there is no use for RINO's in the party.  Quite the contrary, they are more destructive to our image, messaging, and long term goals than the Democrats.  They score more points for the other team than the Dems would dream of on their own.

Then we waste millions of dollars on their reelection so they can officially become Democrats or run on another ticket to ensure that the Democrat wins.  While conservatives always unite to reelect these bums in the general election, the RINO vermin refuse to support the conservatives.  They are not Republicans at all, they are leftist ruling class people who will not part with their power.  We must defeat every one of them.

House Update: Castle Votes for Green Bailout

The first bill that passed the House since returning from summer fun was HR 4785, The Rural Energy Savings Program Act.  This bill ostensibly expands the fed's involvement in rationing our energy use by providing loans to those Democrat special interests who gave loans to consumers using "green energy" a.k.a. no energy.  This was the only major legislation passed before the House recessed for another week so they can spend some of that special interest money to campaign, so they can save their seat, so they can..... spend even more money!  Just another day in DC, another corporate cronyism piece of legislation.  6 Republicans joined almost every Democrat in passing the legislation.  Guess who one of the culprits was?  Mike Castle!  But don't worry, he had help from Bob Inglis (RINO-SC).  Presumably, once the RINOs are defeated, they work extra hard to stick it to us.  Just wait until the lame duck session begins!

Three Republican Senators Vote for Unilateral Disarmament

Earlier today, three Republican Senators joined every Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to send the bill to ratify the START treaty to the full Senate.  The three RINO traitors were Johnny Isackson (Ga), Richard Lugar (IN), and Bob Corker (TN).  How ironic that in light of the recent debate about nominating RINOs in blue states, we have three RINOs from solid red states who are supporting the most radical un-American treaties.  This treaty will basically unilaterally disarm the US of its deterrent power by systematically dismantling our missiles, warheads, and launchers.  Oh! but have no fear; the Russians will match our commitment religiously. 

Richard Lugar, the Ranking Republican on the committee, called the treaty "essential to US security".  Lugar has consistently joined the likes of John Kerry and Joe Biden in pressuring Israel to unilaterally surrender to the Arab terrorists.  It worked so well in the Middle-East that Lugar feels it necessary to implement the same sort of arrangement with the Russians.  This is what happens when we send ruling class Republicans to the Senate.  They give bi-partisan cover to the most extreme policies of the Democrats.  Needless to say, Sen. Jim DeMint led the fight for conservatives on the committee to stop this surrender of American sovereignty.  DeMint attempted to add an amendment that would commit the government to building a robust missile defense system, but it was scrubbed by John Kerry, with the help of the Obama Republicans. 

Chris Shank will be the next State Senator in western Md, RINO's are Sore Losers

Conservative Maryland Delegate Chris Shank defeated super RINO Don Munson in the western Maryland battle for state Senate. 

But wait, RINO Don Munson is refusing to concede to Chris Shank, and is entertaining the possibility of running as a write-in candidate in November.  How reflective of the national RINOs!!  They are all cut from the same cowardly cloth of elitist government statism.  They simply cannot fathom the idea of being shut out of government.  Let's contrast these sore losers to conservative Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne who not only conceded to Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, he agreed to forgo a recount for the purpose of uniting the party!

Also, in Fredrick's district 3A, O'Malley appointed Delegate Charles Jenkins is refusing to support conservative Michael Hough who unseated him last night.  Maybe we should consider reciprocating the favor when they win primary elections?  Then again, the way things are changing within the Republican Party, it appears that we won't have to worry about such a dilemma in the near future.

Another Stunning Primary Night for Conservatives

Christine O'Donnell

Carl Paladino

Last night, conservative tea party candidates toppled RINO's or uninspiring establishment Republicans in almost every consequential race across several states.


Delaware

Delaware will forever be known as the Waterloo of the RINO's.  Although we have been crushing them throughout the primary season, this is the most direct and dramatic defeat we have ever dealt them.  After Lisa Murkowski was defeated in Alaska, she called Mike Castle to warn him that Christine O'Donnell was a potential threat and that she needs to be eradicated.  Murkowski lamented the fact that she didn't run a vicious campaign to tear down Joe Miller, thus allowing him to eke out a razor thin victory in a low turnout primary.  Their rationale dictated that the only way for O'Donnell to pull off the same thing would be for her to slip through the back door in a low turnout environment.

So Castle proceeded to launch the most vicious campaign of the election season against O'Donnell.  Even more poignant was the fact that the state and national Republican Party tore into O'Donnell in a way that has never been done to a member of the same party.  They publicly declared her to be crazy and unelectable, while promising not to support her in the general election.  All this mudslinging had the effect of driving up turnout to almost 60,000 voters, twice the turnout of a typical GOP primary in Delaware.  The result:  O'Donnell won by a decisive 6% margin!  The lesson in this race in clear.  The issue at hand is not O'Donnell's personal flaws or electability.  We are sick and tired of the governing class of elitist statists in the Republican Party.  Delaware is the place were we decisively declared that we will win or die with conservatism.  We already have a Democrat Party.  We need a party for liberty and freedom, and that party will be the new GOP.

Charlie Crist's Senator Helps Break Filibuster on Tarp Jr.

In light of the heated debate over voting for RINO's like Mike Castle, it is important to illustrate in real time why these frauds are more dangerous than the Democrats.  The RINO's score more points for the other side than the Democrats.

Florida (Crist appointed) Senator LeMiux joined Senator George Voinovich (Rino-OH) in voting for cloture on the latest unconstitutional bailout for Democrat special interest groups. (H.R. 5297)  Even Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins voted against cloture!  Yet, we are now about to pass another budget busting, economic retardation bill with the help of a Senator who was appointed by someone who should have never been governor.  The good news is that this charade is about to end.  Both Senators LeMiux and Voinovich will gone and replaced with Marco Rubio and Rob Portman in the 112th congress.  The problem is that time is running out for the extension of the tax cuts and Voinovich is now saying that he will vote against it.  I wonder how Charlie Crist's Rino will vote on the tax cuts?

Mike Castle is the Only Republican Senate Candidate Still Supporting Climate Fascism

I usually don't plug left wing websites, but this blog post from Think Progress is phenomenal.  It details the statements of all Republican Senate candidates as it relates to Anthropogenic Global Warming.  They note that all of the candidates are at least skeptical of AGW except..... you guessed it, Mike Castle.  Here is what Castle writes on his congressional website:

Believing that we must act now to mitigate the impact of global warming pollution, Rep. Castle supports U.S. participation in international agreements and a cap-and-trade program based on the best available science, which will deliver the kind of reform business and industry need to grow the economy, stabilize the climate, and create more diverse and secure sources of energy.  Since 2004, Rep. Castle has supported the Climate Stewardship Act.  Rep. Castle believes we can achieve 15-20% reductions in global warming pollution by 2020 and reductions on the order of 80% by 2050.

Christine O'Donnell signed the Contract from America which pledges to oppose any climate tax. The choice tomorrow is clear.

The Truth About Mike Castle's Extreme Liberal Voting Record

Conservative Christine O'Donnell

As we battle for the heart and sole of the Republican Part, it is unfortunate that some on our side are distorting Mike Castle's record in an attempt to make him more palatable to conservative voters.  They have such disdain for conservative challenger Christine O'Donnell, and desire any chance to have another Senator with an R next to their name, that they are willing to lie about Castle's 20+ year career in Washington.  They naively believe that there is an advantage to having 51 seats that are fully controlled by people like Castle, who are to the left of Arlen Specter, as opposed to 50 seats that are not held hostage by socialist extremists.

Have these people learned nothing about the policy and politics of the Republican Party over the past 16 years?  What is the purpose of winning back control of both houses of congress if it will lead to the same results as last time?  In other words, we will have a slim majority that is held hostage by RINO Senators, in which we will receive the blame for wrongheaded policies that result from initiatives that are anything but Republican!  Then we will get crushed in the next election and keep repeating the vicious cycle that was 1995-2006.  We need run and govern as conservatives or not run at all.

Also, if not for these people giving fodder to the Democrats by bashing the conservative challengers, maybe they would have a legitimate chance to win in November as well.  It is quite clear to any political observer that the only reason why Rick Scott is stuck in a tough race in Florida is because of all the vicious slander that the RINO's spread about him.  Now, they are all but assuring that Christine O'Donnell is unelectable in Delaware.

The Republican establishment has also promulgated this false narrative that only RINO's can win in blue states (or even red states, at times).  In fact, this election cycle has proven just the opposite.  Remember when we stepped aside to let Mark Kirk carry the Republican banner in Illinois?  We were sold a bill of goods that he was the only Republican who can win in Illinois.  Well, it appears that due to the dramatic political shift in Illinois, in conjunction with the Democrats running an unelectable nominee, Mark Kirk is possibly the only Republican who can lose this year!

So let's examine Castle's "pragmatic conservative" voting record, as some are calling it:

Rating that Ever Growing List of House Races

Here is a list of the 39 Democrat held seats that are the lowest hanging fruit.  If the Republicans are to take back the House, the pathway to victory would probably run through these districts first.  The amazing thing is that there are dozens of other relatively easy pickups beyond this list of 39.  This list doesn't even include many of the Democrats that are occupying deep red districts.  Some of them, like Boren in OK or Minnick in ID will be harder to knock off, but many of them are just behind those listed here.

 Ark-1 (open-Berry), Ark-2 (open-Snyder), AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick), AZ-5 (Mitchell), CO-4 (Markey), FL-2 (Boyd), FL-8 (Grayson), FL-24 (Kosmas), IL-11 (Halverson), IL-14 (Foster), IN-8 (Ellsworth), IN-9 (Hill), KS-3 (open Moore), LA-3 (open-Melancom), MD-1 (Kratovil), Mich-1 (open-Stupak), Mich-7 (Schauer), Mis-1 (Childers), ND-At-Large (Pomeroy), NH-1 (Shea-Porter),NH-2 (open-Hodes), NM-2 (Teague), NV-3 (Titus), NY-29 (open-Massa), OH-1 (Driehaus), OH-15 (Kilroy), OH-16 (Boccieri), PA-3 (Dahlkemper), PA-7(open-Sestak), PA-11 (Kanjorski), SC-5 (Spratt), SD-At-large (Sandlin), TN-6 (open-Gordon), TN-8 (open-Tanner), TX-17 (Edwards), VA-2 (Nye), VA-5 (Perriello), WA-3, Wis-7 (open-Obey)

Red Meat Conservative Maryland Primary Endorsements

U.S. Senate- Jim Rutledge

Congress CD-2- Marcelo Cardarelli

Congress CD-3- Greg  Bartosz

Congress CD-5- Charles Lollar

Comptroller- William Campbell

Baltimore County Executive- Ken Holt

State Senate District 2- Christopher Shank

State Senate District 4- David Brinkley


State Senate District 7- J.B. Jennings

State Senate District 8- Dee Hodges

State Senate District 42- Kevin Carney

House of Delegates District 3B- Michael Hough

House of Delegates District 7- Rick Impallaria, Pat McDonough

House of Delegates District 42- Susan Auman, Bill Frank, John Fiastro

House Polling Update

Three more Republican House polls were reported yesterday.

CT-5: An internal poll for Sam Caligiuri conducted by Adam Geller of National Research found Republican Caligiuri trailing Congressman Chris Murphy by a slim 40-39 margin.  The poll which was conducted on August 30-31, also found that only 36% believe Chris Murphy has performed his job in Congress well enough to deserve re-election, while 45% think it’s time for a new person.  Also, the Republicans lead the generic ballot 41-38 in this district.  This clearly indicates that wants Caligiuri garners more name recognition he will be in a solid position to win.
FL-24:  Sandy Adams leads Suzanne Kosmas 49-37 according to a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on Sept 1-2.  The poll also showed that only 38% of the district approved of Obama and 34% approved of Obamacare, while 63% oppose it.
WV-1:  Democrat Mike Oliverio is leading Republican David McKinley 41-36, according to a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.  However, the poll finds that McKinley leads Oliverio 53-40 among voters who are familiar with the views of both candidates. 

This is a pretty amazing dichotomy because WV-1 is West Virginia's most conservative district, as it is rated R+9, while CT-5 is rated D+2.  Yet, the Republican is polling better in CT-5.  This clearly has a lot to do with the fact that Oliverio is campaigning against Pelosi and is having some degree of success in lying about his true ideology.  As we pointed out before, Republicans need to remind voters in "blue dog districts" that any and every Democrat will vote for Pelosi to be Speaker of the Mosque.  This is yet another example of a district in which the more successful the Democrat is at assailing Pelosi, the more likely it will be that she will remain Speaker.  FL-24 is rated R+4 and has long been considered one of the most likely seats to flip because Kosmas is not even pretending to be a blue dog.

The full list of House polls can be found here.

Update:  If some of the polling news doesn't seem to be reflective of a massive red wave, this report certainly does.  According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, Republicans are garnering the most support in the primaries relative to the Democrats since 1930!

District by District House Polls and the Impending GOP Wave

Below the fold, I have compiled a comprehensive list of all the recent polls of competitive house races.  Statewide Senate and Gubernatorial polling data are readily available but resources on House race polling are quite scarce.  So here is the list for you political junkies out there (let me know if there is anything missing). 

The striking thing about these polls is that they foreshadow an impending red tsunami in November.  Yes, these are mainly internal polls or surveys conducted by political consulting firms, but they provide a general picture of the house playing field.  Furthermore we can compare these results to those of past election cycles and conclude that there are a record amount of incumbent Democrats who are either trailing their Republican challengers or leading within the margin of error.  This is quite astounding because House races, unlike Senate races, are much more volatile.  Due to the lack of name ID for the challengers, less publicity, and a more unpredictable electorate, polls usually don’t show so many challengers doing this well two months before an election.  In fact, in 2006, when the Democrats picked up 31 seats, only 11 Democrat challengers were leading in pre-election polling data, according to the Cook Report.

The other striking thing about the polling landscape is the amount of Democrat leaning districts in which the Republicans are polling strong.  There are currently 69 Democrats holding seats that are rated as Republican districts by Charlie Cook’s partisan voting index.  That means that if Republicans would only win R leaning districts they would pick up 69 seats, almost twice the minimum necessary to flip the House.  The House polling data suggests that there are a few dozen Democrat seats beyond those 69 seats that are either in danger of flipping or potentially competitive. 

Now, obviously not all 69 Republican challengers are in solid position to win in November.  We have the rare anomalies such as Idaho-1 in which incumbent Democrat Walt Minnick is still leading by a comfortable margin.  However, in most of the other competitive districts where the Democrat is leading, the challenger has less than 50% name ID.  Almost every Republican who has a name ID any where close to that of the Democrat, is leading in the polls.  The cumulative results of these polls indicate that there is almost no limit to how immense this red wave will ultimately be.

Here is the list of district polls for the competitive House races.  According to a Charlie Cook report, there are 32 Republicans leading, and that report was filed before American Action Forum came out with 6 more polls that had Republicans ahead.  I have a total of 51 Democrat seats in which the Republican is tied or ahead.  There are a number of others in which the Republican trails by less than 6 points.   Also, many of the polls are old and were taken before the environment got as toxic as the current disaster for the Democrats.  Furthermore, this list doesn't include many districts that it is so clear the Republicans will win, they are not even deemed competitive anymore.  I couldn’t find all of them, but 90% should be included in the list.  Most of these polls are of districts that are either incumbent or open Democrat seats.